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Mannequin Predictive Management Fundamentals | In the direction of Knowledge Science

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August 13, 2025
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Mannequin Predictive Management Fundamentals | In the direction of Knowledge Science
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On this article we’ll:

1. Introduction

Mannequin predictive management (MPC) is a well-liked suggestions management methodology the place a finite-horizon optimum management downside (OCP) is iteratively solved with an up to date measured state on every iteration.

The MPC loop. Picture by writer.

Within the OCP one makes use of a mannequin of the plant to search out the optimum open loop management over the finite horizon thought-about. As a result of the mannequin can not seize the true plant’s behaviour 100%, and since in the true world the system is subjected to noise and disturbances, one solely applies the primary portion of the optimum open loop management, and usually measures the state to re-solve the OCP. This closes the loop and creates a suggestions.

The maths behind it’s comparatively easy and intuitive (particularly when in comparison with issues like strong management) and it’s straightforward to code up an MPC controller. Different professionals are that it could possibly successfully deal with exhausting and gentle constraints on the state and management (exhausting constraints are strict, whereas gentle constraints are enforced through penalisation in the price operate) and it could possibly usually be used on nonlinear methods with nonconvex constraints (relying on how nasty these are in fact!). The one con is that you must resolve a optimization issues “on-line” in actual time, which generally is a downside should you’re controlling a quick system or have restricted computing sources.

1.2 Working Instance

All through the article I’ll think about the double integrator with a zero-order maintain management (i.e. a piecewise fixed management) because the working instance within the code. The continual time system reads:

[
begin{align*}
dot x _1(t) & = x_2(t),
dot x _2(t) & = u(t),
end{align*}
]

with (t in mathbb{R} ) denoting time. Right here ( x_1(t) in mathbb{R} ) is the place whereas ( x_2(t) in mathbb{R} ) is the velocity. You possibly can consider this method as a 1kg block sliding on a frictionless desk, with (u(t)) the utilized pressure.

Working instance: the double integrator. Picture by writer.

If we constrain the management to be piecewise fixed over intervals of size 0.1 seconds, we get the discrete-time system:

[
begin{align*}
x_{k+1} &= A x_k + Bu_k,
end{align*}
]

with (okay in mathbb{Z}), the place,

[
begin{align*}
A :=
left(
begin{array}{cc}
1 & 0.1
0 & 1
end{array}
right), ,,
B :=
left(
begin{array}{c}
0.05
1
end{array}
right)
end{align*}
]

and (x_k in mathbb{R}^2 ), (u_k in mathbb{R} ). (Word that I take advantage of (x_k) and (u_k) to consult with the discrete-time system’s state and management to make the notation neater in the remainder of the article.)

You should utilize the scipy packages’s cont2discrete operate to get this discrete time system, as follows:

import numpy as np
from scipy.sign import cont2discrete

A = np.array([[0, 1],[0, 0]])
B = np.array([[0],[1]])
C = np.array([[1, 0],[0, 1]])
D = np.array([[0, 0],[0, 0]])
dt = 0.1 # in seconds
discrete_system = cont2discrete((A, B, C, D), dt, technique='zoh')
A_discrete, B_discrete, *_ = discrete_system

2. Optimum Management Drawback

We’ll think about the next discrete-time optimum management downside (OCP):

[
begin{equation}
{mathrm{OCP}(bar x):}begin{cases}
minlimits_{mathbf{u},mathbf{x}} quad & sum_{k=0}^{K-1} left(x_k^{top}Qx_k + u_k^top R u_k right)+ x_{K}^top Q_K x_{K}
mathrm{subject to:}quad & x_{k+1} = Ax_k + Bu_k, &k in[0:K-1], & dots(1)
quad & x_0 = bar x , & & dots(2)
quad & x_kin [-1,1]occasions(-infty,infty),& okay in[1:K], & dots(3)
quad & u_kin [-1,1],& okay in[0:K-1], & dots(4)
finish{instances}
finish{equation}
]

the place,

  • (Kinmathbb{R}_{geq 0}) denotes the finite horizon over which we resolve the OCP,
  • (kinmathbb{Z}) denotes the discrete time step,
  • ([p:q]), with (p,qinmathbb{Z}), denotes the set of integers ({p,p+1,…,q}),
  • (bar x in mathbb{R}^2 ) denotes the preliminary situation of the dynamical system,
  • (x_kinmathbb{R}^2 ) denotes the state at step (okay),
  • (uinmathbb{R}) denotes the management at step (okay),
  • (Qinmathbb{R}^{2times 2}), (Rinmathbb{R}) and (Q_K in mathbb{R}^{2times 2}) are sq. optimistic particular matrices that specify the price operate ((R) is scalar right here as a result of (u) is scalar).

Furthermore, we’ll let,

  • (mathbf{u}:= (u_0,u_1,…,u_{Ok−1})inmathbb{R}^Ok ) denote the management sequence,
  • (mathbf{x}:= (x_0,x_1,…,x_{Ok})inmathbb{R}^{2(Ok+1)} ) denote the state sequence.

To be rigorous, we’ll say that the pair ((mathbf{u}^{*}, mathbf{x}^{*})inmathbb{R}^Ok occasions mathbb{R}^{2(Ok+1)}) is a answer to ( mathrm{OCP}(bar{x})) offered that it minimises the price operate over all admissible pairs, that’s,

[
begin{equation*}
J(mathbf{u}^{*}, mathbf{x}^{*}) leq J(mathbf{u}, mathbf{x}),quad forall (mathbf{u},mathbf{x})in Omega
end{equation*}
]

the place (J:mathbb{R}^Ok occasions mathbb{R}^{2(Ok+1)}rightarrow mathbb{R}_{geq 0} ) is,

[
begin{equation*}
J(mathbf{u},mathbf{x}) :=left( sum_{k=0}^{K-1 }x_k^top Q x_k + u_k^top R u_k right) + x_K^top Q_K x_K
end{equation*}
]

and (Omega ) denotes all admissible pairs,

[
Omega :={(mathbf{u},mathbf{x})in mathbb{R}^{K}times mathbb{R}^{2(K+1)} : (1)-(4),, mathrm{hold}}.
]

Thus, the optimum management downside is to discover a management and state sequence, (( mathbf{u}^{*},mathbf{x}^{*})), that minimises the price operate, topic to the dynamics, (f), in addition to constraints on the state and management, (x_kin[-1,1]occasions(-infty,infty)), (u_k in [-1,1] ), for all (okay). The fee operate is significant to the controller’s efficiency. Not solely within the sense of making certain the controller behaves properly (for instance, to forestall erratic alerts) but additionally in specifying the equilibrium level the closed loop state will settle at. Extra on this in Part 4.

Word how (mathrm{OCP}(bar x) ) is parametrised with respect to the preliminary state, (bar x ). This comes from the elemental concept behind MPC: that the optimum management downside is iteratively solved with an up to date measured state.

2.1 Coding an OCP solver

CasADi’s opti stack makes it very easy to arrange and resolve the OCP.

First, some preliminaries:

from casadi import *

n = 2 # state dimension
m = 1 # management dimension
Ok = 100 # prediction horizon

# an arbitrary preliminary state
x_bar = np.array([[0.5],[0.5]]) # 2 x 1 vector

# Linear price matrices (we'll simply use identities)
Q = np.array([[1. , 0],
            [0. , 1. ]])
R = np.array([[1]])
Q_K = Q

# Constraints for all okay
u_max = 1
x_1_max = 1
x_1_min = -1

Now we outline the issue’s choice variables:

opti = Opti()

x_tot = opti.variable(n, Ok+1)  # State trajectory
u_tot = opti.variable(m, Ok)    # Management trajectory

Subsequent, we impose the dynamic constraints and arrange the price operate:

# Specify the preliminary situation
opti.subject_to(x_tot[:, 0] == x_bar)

price = 0
for okay in vary(Ok):
    # add dynamic constraints
    x_tot_next = get_x_next_linear(x_tot[:, k], u_tot[:, k])
    opti.subject_to(x_tot[:, k+1] == x_tot_next)

    # add to the price
    price += mtimes([x_tot[:,k].T, Q, x_tot[:,k]]) +      
                           mtimes([u_tot[:,k].T, R, u_tot[:,k]])

# terminal price
price += mtimes([x_tot[:,K].T, Q_K, x_tot[:,K]])
def get_x_next_linear(x, u):
    # Linear system
    A = np.array([[1. , 0.1],
                [0. , 1. ]])
    B = np.array([[0.005],
                  [0.1  ]])
    
    return mtimes(A, x) + mtimes(B, u)

The code mtimes([x_tot[:,k].T, Q, x_tot[:,k]]) implements matrix multiplication, (x_k^{prime} Q x_k ).

We now add the management and state constraints,

# constrain the management
opti.subject_to(opti.bounded(-u_max, u_tot, u_max))

# constrain the place solely
opti.subject_to(opti.bounded(x_1_min, x_tot[0,:], x_1_max))

and resolve:

# Say we wish to minimise the price and specify the solver (ipopt)
opts = {"ipopt.print_level": 0, "print_time": 0}
opti.decrease(price)
opti.solver("ipopt", opts)
    
answer = opti.resolve()

# Get answer
x_opt = answer.worth(x_tot)
u_opt = answer.worth(u_tot)

We are able to plot the answer with the repo’s plot_solution() operate.

from MPC_tutorial import plot_solution

plot_solution(x_opt, u_opt.reshape(1,-1)) # should reshape u_opt to (1,Ok)
OCP answer (open loop). Picture by writer.

3. Mannequin Predictive Management

The answer to ( mathrm{OCP}(bar x) ), ( (mathbf{x}^{*},mathbf{u}^{*}) ), for a given (bar x), offers us with an open loop management, ( mathbf{u}^{*} ). We now shut the loop by iteratively fixing ( mathrm{OCP}(bar x) ) and updating the preliminary state (that is the MPC algorithm).

[
begin{aligned}
&textbf{Input:} quad mathbf{x}^{mathrm{init}}inmathbb{R}^2
&quad bar x gets mathbf{x}^{mathrm{init}}
&textbf{for } k in [0:infty) textbf{:}
&quad (mathbf{x}^{*}, mathbf{u}^{*}) gets argmin mathrm{OCP}(bar x)
&quad mathrm{apply} u_0^{*} mathrm{ to the system}
&quad bar x gets mathrm{measured state at } k+1
&textbf{end for}
end{aligned}
]

3.1 Coding the MPC algorithm

The remainder is sort of easy. First, I’ll put all our earlier code in a operate:

def solve_OCP(x_bar, Ok):
    ....

    return x_opt, u_opt

Word that I’ve parametrised the operate with the preliminary state, (bar x), in addition to the prediction horizon, (Ok). The MPC loop is then carried out with:

x_init = np.array([[0.5],[0.5]]) # 2 x 1 vector
Ok = 10
number_of_iterations = 150 # should in fact be finite!

# matrices of zeros with the right sizes to retailer the closed loop
u_cl = np.zeros((1, number_of_iterations))
x_cl = np.zeros((2, number_of_iterations + 1))

x_cl[:, 0] = x_init[:, 0]

x_bar = x_init
for i in vary(number_of_iterations):
    _, u_opt = solve_OCP(x_bar, Ok)
    u_opt_first_element = u_opt[0]

    # save closed loop x and u
    u_cl[:, i] = u_opt_first_element
    x_cl[:, i+1] = np.squeeze(get_x_next_linear(x_bar,   
                                                u_opt_first_element))

    # replace preliminary state
    x_bar = get_x_next_linear(x_bar, u_opt_first_element)

Once more, we are able to plot the closed loop answer.

plot_solution(x_cl, u_cl)
MPC closed loop. Picture by writer.

Word that I’ve “measured” the plant’s state by utilizing the operate get_x_next_linear(). In different phrases, I’ve assumed that our mannequin is 100% right.

Right here’s a plot of the closed loop from a bunch of preliminary states.

MPC closed loop from varied preliminary states. Picture by writer.

4. Additional subjects

4.1 Stability and Recursive Feasibility

Two of a very powerful facets of an MPC controller are recursive feasibility of the iteratively invoked OCP and stability of the closed loop. In different phrases, if I’ve solved the OCP at time (okay), will there exist an answer to the OCP at time (okay+1)? If there exists an answer to the OCP at each time step, will the closed-loop state asymptotically settle at an equilibrium level (i.e. will or not it’s steady)?

Making certain that an MPC controller reveals these two properties entails rigorously designing the price operate and constraints, and selecting a protracted sufficient prediction horizon. Going again to our instance, recall that the matrices in the price operate had been merely chosen to be:

[
Q = left( begin{array}{cc}
1 & 0
0 & 1
end{array}
right),, Q_K = left( begin{array}{cc}
1 & 0
0 & 1
end{array}
right),, R = 1.
]

In different phrases, the OCP penalises the space of the state to the origin and thus drives it there. As you’ll be able to most likely guess, if the prediction horizon, (Ok), could be very brief and the preliminary state is situated very near the constraints at (x_1=pm 1), the OCP will discover options with inadequate “foresight” and the issue might be infeasible at some future iteration of the MPC loop. (You too can experiment with this by making (Ok) small within the code.)

4.2 Some Different Matters

MPC is an lively area of analysis and there are lots of fascinating subjects to discover.

What if the total state can’t be measured? This pertains to observability and output MPC. What if I don’t care about asymptotic stability? This (typically) has to do with financial MPC. How do I make the controller strong to noise and disturbances? There are a couple of methods to take care of this, with tube MPC most likely being the best-known.

Future articles may give attention to a few of these subjects.

5. Additional studying

Listed below are some commonplace and superb textbooks on MPC.

[1] Grüne, L., & Pannek, J. (2016). Nonlinear mannequin predictive management.

[2] Rawlings, J. B., Mayne, D. Q., & Diehl, M. (2020). Mannequin predictive management: idea, computation, and design.

[3] Kouvaritakis, B., & Cannon, M. (2016). Mannequin predictive management: Traditional, strong and stochastic.

Tags: BasicsControlDataModelPredictiveScience
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